For every Alex Rodriguez or Joe Mauer, there's a Brien Taylor or Matt Bush.
For every John Elway or Peyton Manning, there's an Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell.
A general manager in every sport goes through this every year — they're blessed with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but they agonize over a decision that could potentially define their career. Take the right guy, and you're set up for a dynasty; pick wrong, and your team goes down the tubes and you're the scapegoat.
The pressure isn't quite as steep in basketball, though.
These days, scouting is so strong and information so readily available that everyone, NBA GMs and the general public alike, knows who's the best of the best in each draft class. And it's rare that the popular opinion turns out to be wrong.
Yao Ming. LeBron James. Dwight Howard. Derrick Rose. All of these guys were hyped from the very beginning. They've all gone No. 1 overall in the past decade, and they've all followed through on the hype to become huge stars in the NBA.
Sometimes, there's no such thing as a sure thing. But in the NBA, the top pick in the draft is something mighty close.
And perhaps when we look back someday on this Thursday night, we'll realize there was never a surer thing than the next member of the Washington Wizards, John Wall.
There's no mystery about the opening act of Thursday's NBA draft. Wizards executive Ernie Grunfeld has an absolute no-brainer of a decision to make with the top pick in the 2010 draft — he's taking Wall, and in doing so, he's bringing a revolution to the Wizards' franchise.
Straight out of the Word of God Christian Academy, his private high school in Raleigh, N.C., Wall was lauded a year ago as the best college prospect in the nation. When he arrived in Lexington last fall to play for John Calipari's Wildcats, he was immediately hailed as the next big thing. He didn't disappoint.
In November, he made the game-winning shot in the final second of his first college game, as Kentucky beat Miami University. In December, he played hurt but still led the Wildcats to a huge victory over visiting North Carolina. Wall led the 'Cats to a 19-0 start in his freshman season; he carried them to an SEC title, and he led them into the NCAA Tournament. He finished the season averaging 16.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game, and his Wildcats went 35-3.
Wall can do it all. He's fast like Rajon Rondo, long like Derrick Rose, explosive like Chris Paul, smart like Steve Nash and versatile like Jason Kidd. He can run the floor, drive to the basket, distribute to his teammates, score on anyone and defend anyone. He's only 19 years old — with a 20th birthday in September — and he's already a guaranteed superstar.
Is he a perfect fit in Washington? Maybe not. A few have speculated that because Gilbert Arenas is an active guard that always wants the ball in his hands, the two won't coexist. Perhaps that's true — but if it is, the Wizards won't have to bother appeasing Arenas. Agent Zero can hit the road — make way for Wall.
Nothing's ever guaranteed in sports — no matter how much hype you hear, you can never take for granted that a player will pan out. We've seen far too many busts in recent years to think otherwise.
