I just can't figure out who to pick for this Super Bowl.
The reasons are many, but the biggest has to be that both teams flat-out stunk in the second halves of their games two weekends ago. The Steelers were nearly on the wrong side of an epic playoff collapse, getting outscored 16-0 and just hanging on against the Jets, while the Packers pretty much completely stalled against a Caleb Hanie-led Bears team.
Other factors for my disarray, listed in no particular order, include: Homeland Security shutting down ATDHE.net, 79 inches of snow blanketing Boston, Mark Zuckerberg's brutal appearance on Saturday Night Live, the atrocities of the NHL All-Star Game and the NFL's Pro Bowl, Brett Keisel's beard, Roger Goodell bringing up leftover feelings from Spygate for no reason, Kevin from The Office vomiting mid-speech and Punxsutawney Phil still forcing the American public to talk about a rodent's clairvoyance.
I've gone every which way 200 times over the past two weeks, and I still don't have an answer. But you don't make 266 picks and then skip out on No. 267. I'll just have to figure this one out as I go along.
The line: GREEN BAY (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
OK, initially, during the NFC Championship Game, I was thinking it'd be Green Bay in a landslide, whether they'd be facing the Jets or the Steelers. Then, Aaron Rodgers threw that pick to Brian Urlacher.
Now, I know that everyone throws picks, even if their name is Tom, Peyton or Brett. Well, especially if their name is Brett. But there was something about this pick that scared the daylights out of me. Here were the Packers with a second-and-goal from the 6-yard line. Ahead 14-0 early in the third, the Packers really only needed a field goal to put away the Bears' hopes.
And there was Rodgers, in the biggest moment of his career to that point, feeling phantom pressure and rushing a throw to a guy in triple coverage.
Now, that tackle was pretty sweet, but the image of that pick, with the Packers really in position to put away a Super Bowl berth, has lingered with me for nearly two weeks.
That fear was only compounded a few hours later, when Ben Roethlisberger, having a mostly abysmal game to that point, converted a third-and-6 to ice the game in the fourth quarter like it was no big deal. Say what you want about the guy off the field, and say what you want about being a product of a system, but that guy simply knows how to make plays.
I loved the play for several reasons. First and foremost, the Steelers came out in a shotgun, five-receiver set with 2:00 on the clock and the Jets owning zero timeouts. History rewards the bold, and the fact that the Steelers were willing to risk stopping the clock and giving the Jets a chance to win tells me how confident they are in the quarterback and tells me they'll show no hesitation doing the same in the Super Bowl.
Second, Roethlisberger was absolutely perfect on that play. You knew the one thing he couldn't do was throw an incompletion, and you could tell there was no way he'd let it happen. He scrambled to his right, knowing a sack wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, he knew he couldn't run out of bounds, and he waited until his rookie receiver got enough separation to make a play. Unlike Rodgers, who did the one thing he absolutely couldn't afford to do, Big Ben was perfect.
It really was a thing of beauty, but you know, there are a few other guys who play other positions who figure to have an impact on this game. That's where the worry comes in again.
I watched, just like you did not more than two months ago, Green Bay head into the home of the mighty Patriots with their backup quarterback calling plays, and if not for a bizarre late-game meltdown, the Pack absolutely would have won. What they did that game was present a blueprint for how to win a football game. They controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes, stayed balanced with 38 rushes and 37 passes and did what they wanted to do. If they do that any Sunday, they can beat anyone — particulary with their starting quarterback under center. If not for a once-in-a-lifetime kick return from Dan Connolly, the Packers walk out of Foxboro as winners in what was a very impressive game regardless.
The other concern I have with picking against Mr. Rodgers is the turf. He's said he loves turf (probably not playing for the right franchise, but I digress), and the way he tore apart the Falcons a few weeks ago could very well end up happening again on Sunday night in Dallas.
So that's where I'm at. I give Pittsburgh the distinct advantage in a crunch-time situation, but I can't shake the very real possibility that Green Bay scores 30 points. There's the Maurkice Pouncey drama, but you know, that Steelers line has been a mess all season, yet here they are in the Super Bowl.
I guess I'll have to go with history, which shows four of the past seven Super Bowl champs won by margins of three or four points. And one of those teams that won by a greater margin was Pittsburgh.
So I'll be going with Big Ben and the Steelers getting three in six years, which will undoubtedly bring about roughly 200 million Steelers fans claiming they'd have five or six in 10 years if not for the Patriots' treacherous cheating. With this one, I don't think I'll mind if I'm wrong.
Oh, and if you're planning on throwing down all your money on ridiculous prop bets, remember my logic: Tails never fails … except for 50 percent of the time. With this game looking as close to a coin flip as possible, the lesson seems appropriate.
The pick: Steelers 24, Packers 20
Last week: 1-1
Playoffs: 4-6
Regular season: 131-120-5
