The Indianapolis Colts are not the same team that the New England Patriots trounced 43-22 in last season’s divisional round playoff game.
Sure, the 2014 version of the Colts still is led by quarterback Andrew Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, but thanks to increased health and added weapons, Indianapolis is much more dangerous offensively.
The team that was walloped Jan. 11 at Gillette Stadium already had lost All-Pro wide receiver Reggie Wayne, starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw and stud tight end Dwayne Allen. The Colts were forced to give receivers LaVon Brazill (recently cut by the CFL’s Toronto Argonauts), Da’Rick Rogers (released in September after being charged with a DUI) and Griff Whalen (who has received just 45 offensive snaps this season) significant reps in the team’s most important game of the year.
Wayne, Bradshaw and Allen are back and making an impact this season, and the Colts added receivers Hakeem Nicks and rookie Donte Moncrief. Luck also is a year older, wiser and making fewer dumb mistakes.
I mentioned on Twitter how the Colts’ weapons had improved, and my more defensive Patriots-fan followers were quick to point out that New England added some key pieces between January and now, as well.
The Patriots had lost tight end Rob Gronkowski, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and defensive tackle Vince Wilfork by the playoffs, and they hadn’t yet added cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, safety Patrick Chung and wideout Brandon LaFell.
With that out of the way, let’s look at how the Patriots defended Luck and the Colts’ wideouts, especially dangerous speedster T.Y. Hilton, last season.
The Patriots were able to keep Luck off-balance by using various coverage schemes. They used press-man, off-man, Cover 2, Cover 3 and Cover 2 under-man looks. Cornerbacks typically stuck on one receiver, but that didn’t necessarily mean they would stay with that player down the field and into their routes.
Patriots No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib followed Hilton around the field pre-snap on 41 of the wideout’s 43 routes, including when both would line up in the slot. On one of the two plays when Talib didn’t follow Hilton, he ripped off a 46-yard reception on a botched Cover 3 zone look.
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Hilton, positioned in the slot, crosses over the middle of the field, and Patriots cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, on the defensive right, should have picked him up sooner when he obviously was traveling into his zone.
The Patriots were most effective shutting down Hilton when they used press-man coverage. The biggest risk of trying to disrupt Hilton’s routes is that he easily can duck under a shove at the line of scrimmage, and that gets the cornerback off balance and in catch-up mode. Here’s an effective use of man coverage on Hilton:
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Hilton is in the slot again, and Talib rides him down the field. That play might be called for illegal contact this season, however.
Hilton is at his most dangerous on crossing routes when the cornerback can’t catch up with his speed and agility, and when he’s showing off his deep speed on go routes. When executed correctly, Cover 3 can be effective in stopping Hilton’s deep routes.
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Hilton, lined up at the bottom of the screen, looks open, but Talib is making sure he doesn’t take off toward the end zone. Luck targets Rogers in the middle of the field, and McCourty times his hit perfectly to dislodge the football.
A Cover 3 defense send the cornerbacks and free safety into deep coverage with the strong safety and linebackers patrolling the middle of the field. Revis, Browner and McCourty all have experience in a Cover 3.
Last year, Dennard stuck on Brazill and Rogers, while Kyle Arrington and Logan Ryan followed Whalen. Linebacker Jamie Collins drew tight end Coby Fleener, and held him to two catches for 12 yards with an interception. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower covered Colts running backs out of the backfield and also snagged a pick. The Patriots’ alignments weren’t overly complex (despite mixing 3-4 and 4-3 looks in the base defense), but the concepts changed from play to play.
We’ll likely see much of the same Sunday, despite the personnel changes. Revis likely will handle Hilton in a wide range of different schemes, while Browner presumably will bounce from Allen to Wayne, depending on the Colts’ offensive alignment. The Colts run more two-tight end looks than they did last season since Allen and Fleener both are healthy. Collins had success against Fleener, so expect him to draw the same matchup this season, though Chung also can help out on both tight ends.
The Patriots should stay in nickel for most of the game, since Browner can cover tight ends and wide receivers, meaning he can cover Allen when the Colts are in 12 (one running back, two tight ends) personnel and either Wayne, Nicks or Moncrief when they’re in 11 personnel.
The Patriots can’t seem to decide on a third cornerback this season, using Kyle Arrington, Alfonzo Dennard, Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan depending on matchups, and their No. 3 cornerback will need to be versatile, since he’ll likely be tasked with covering Wayne, Nicks and Moncrief. Wayne has a tendency to share slot snaps with Hilton, so the player must have experience in that role, as well, which means Butler might be sitting this game out.
Dennard picked off Luck twice last season, and he can play outside and in the slot, but he doesn’t have the ideal height to match up with the Colts’ wideouts. Arrington is the Patriots’ best slot cornerback, but Bill Belichick has seemed hesitant to use him outside this year, and Ryan has been inconsistent this season, but he has the best combination of height and versatility.
Thumbnail photo via Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports Images