NFL Championship Game Picks: Bengals Eye Upset; Can Rams Finally Solve 49ers?
Time to punch Super Bowl tickets
Twenty-eight NFL teams have seen their season end earlier than they hoped. The final four, who will do battle Sunday in the conference championships, still have the California dream alive.
The AFC and NFC crowns will be handed out, with a spot in Super Bowl LVI on the line, beginning Sunday afternoon. As always, NESN.com's Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are making their against-the-spread picks for the week's action, a bittersweet endeavor with just three games left in the entire 2021 season.
But first, here's how they handled the divisional round.
Now, here are their conference championship picks, with lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Cincinnati Bengals at (-7) Kansas City Chiefs, 3 p.m. ET
Mike: Bengals.
At the risk of putting too much stock into these teams' Week 17 matchup, the Bengals did some impressive things. The first was how they were able to get Ja'Marr Chase the ball in space, allowing him to absolutely go off for 266 receiving yards. Certainly, the KC game plan will focus on taking him away, but Joe Burrow has no shortage of weapons, and we did just see Taylor Gabriel go off against the Chiefs' secondary that might be without Tyrann Mathieu.
Defensively, the Bengals limited Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Granted, Patrick Mahomes still spread it around, but Cincinnati at least should stay in the game if that's the case again. Winning this game probably is too much to ask of the young Bengals, but there's enough in their favor to keep it within the number.
Ricky: Chiefs.
Cincinnati's pass protection has been a problem, evident by the Bengals' offensive line ranking 31st in adjusted sack rate. That glaring weakness was on full display in the AFC divisional round, when the Tennessee Titans sacked Burrow nine (!) times despite Cincinnati's road win, and it could rear its ugly head again Sunday against a Kansas City defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate.
Burrow seemingly can make every throw imaginable, but he still has just 28 NFL games under his belt. Inexperience -- at the QB position, along the O-line and on the sideline with head coach Zac Taylor -- finally will catch up to the Bengals, as the Chiefs equally are as explosive and far more seasoned.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco 49ers at (-3.5) Los Angeles Rams, 6:30 p.m.
Mike: Rams.
At this point, bet against the 49ers at your own risk, given their ability to not only cover but win outright as underdogs. They've certainly owned the Rams, too, winning six in a row against their division rivals. However, the Rams' offense will be a very tough matchup if San Francisco can't get pressure. Matthew Stafford has too many weapons for a middling Niners secondary to cover, a problem the Tampa Bay Buccaneers faced last week versus the Rams.
LA has a habit of blowing late leads, which it did not only last week but in its late-season matchup with the 49ers. Given how well the Rams' defensive front has looked, though, it's hard to have too much confidence in Jimmy Garoppolo leading a late-game comeback again. That's especially true if offensive tackle Trent Williams still is hobbled for San Fran.
Ricky: Rams.
The 49ers have developed a strong recipe for beating the Rams: pressure Stafford without blitzing a ton, and limit the amount of havoc Aaron Donald wreaks. Can't take those for granted, though, and Los Angeles has the top-level talent on both sides of the ball to compete with anybody.
The Rams struggle when their depth is tested, but they enter this matchup relatively healthy, whereas the 49ers have been banged up in recent weeks. The difference ultimately will be Los Angeles' offensive ceiling, particularly in the passing game, where the likes of Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., among others, will be a handful for San Francisco's secondary. Just think: We're one week removed from an awful performance by Garoppolo in Green Bay despite the 49ers' upset win over the Packers. Can Jimmy G keep up if this game turns into a track meet? Don't think so.
